As humans we think in a linear fashion. Despite our Maths teachers' best attempts, we struggle to think exponentially. At the same time we like to hype whatever is new and exciting like generative AI and their supposed short-term revolutionary impacts, while underestimating the longer-term impacts of emerging technologies. Our expectations and time-horizons infrequently line up. Did you know that this concept was perfectly encapsulated by the futurist Roy Amara? Amara's Law states that we tend to overestimate the impact of a new technology in the short term, but underestimate its impact in the long term.
Anders Sörman-Nilsson, Global Futurist
